Opposing oceanic and atmospheric ENSO influences on the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

International audienceHere we discuss the cause and effect of opposing atmospheric and oceanic ENSO forcings in the Ross Sea, that lead to a net warming in the eastern Ross Sea and a net cooling in the western Ross Sea during El Niño years. During La Niña years the opposite is observed. The oceanic ENSO effect causes a ~1 K warming with a 3 month lag during El Niño years in comparison to La Niña time periods. During El Niño events, the atmospheric ENSO effect leads to a shift and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low, causing enhanced import of colder West Antarctic air masses into the western Ross Sea. We find that this indirect ENSO effect is about one order of magnitude stronger (up to 15 K) in the western Ross Sea than the direct effect (~1 K), leading to a net cooling during El Niño and net warming during La Niña events

Deglacial evolution of regional Antarctic climate and Southern Ocean conditions in transient climate simulations

Constraining Antarctica's climate evolution since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (∼18&thinsp;ka) remains a key challenge, but is important for accurately projecting future changes in Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. Here we perform a spatial and temporal analysis of two transient deglacial climate simulations, one using a fully coupled GCM (TraCE-21ka) and one using an intermediate complexity model (LOVECLIM DGns), to determine regional differences in deglacial climate evolution and identify the main strengths and limitations of the models in terms of climate variables that impact ice sheet mass balance. The greatest continental surface warming is observed over the continental margins in both models, with strong correlations between surface albedo, sea ice coverage, and surface air temperature along the coasts, as well as regions with the greatest decrease in ice surface elevation in TraCE-21ka. Accumulation–temperature scaling relationships are fairly linear and constant in the continental interior, but exhibit higher variability in the early to mid-Holocene over coastal regions. Circum-Antarctic coastal ocean temperatures at grounding line depths are highly sensitive to the meltwater forcings prescribed in each simulation, which are applied in different ways due to limited paleo-constraints. Meltwater forcing associated with the Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP1A) event results in subsurface warming that is most pronounced in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea sector in both models. Although modelled centennial-scale rates of temperature and accumulation change are reasonable, clear model–proxy mismatches are observed with regard to the timing and duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) and Younger Dryas–early Holocene warming, which may suggest model bias in large-scale ocean circulation, biases in temperature reconstructions from proxy records, or that the MWP1A and 1B events are inadequately represented in these simulations. The incorporation of dynamic ice sheet models in future transient climate simulations could aid in improving meltwater forcing representation, and thus model–proxy agreement, through this time interval.</p

High-resolution continuous-flow analysis setup for water isotopic measurement from ice cores using laser spectroscopy

Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotope (&delta;¹⁸O and δD) continuous-flow measurements and provide metrics defining the performance of the setup during a major ice core measurement campaign (Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution; RICE). We also use the metrics to compare alternate systems. Our setup is the first continuous-flow laser spectroscopy system that is using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (OA-ICOS; analyzer manufactured by Los Gatos Research, LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze water samples from an ice core. <br><br> A Water Vapor Isotope Standard Source (WVISS) calibration unit, manufactured by LGR, was modified to (1) enable measurements on several water standards, (2) increase the temporal resolution by reducing the response time and (3) reduce the influence from memory effects. While this setup was designed for the continuous-flow analysis (CFA) of ice cores, it can also continuously analyze other liquid or vapor sources. <br><br> The custom setups provide a shorter response time (~ 54 and 18 s for 2013 and 2014 setup, respectively) compared to the original WVISS unit (~ 62 s), which is an improvement in measurement resolution. Another improvement compared to the original WVISS is that the custom setups have a reduced memory effect. <br><br> Stability tests comparing the custom and WVISS setups were performed and Allan deviations (&sigma;_Allan) were calculated to determine precision at different averaging times. For the custom 2013 setup the precision after integration times of 10³ s is 0.060 and 0.070 &permil; for δ¹⁸O and δD, respectively. The corresponding &sigma;_Allan values for the custom 2014 setup are 0.030, 0.060 and 0.043 &permil; for &delta;¹⁸O, δD and &delta;¹⁷O, respectively. For the WVISS setup the precision is 0.035, 0.070 and 0.042 &permil; after 10³ s for δ¹⁸O, δD and &delta;¹⁷O, respectively. Both the custom setups and WVISS setup are influenced by instrumental drift with δ¹⁸O being more drift sensitive than δD. The &sigma;_Allan values for δ¹⁸O are 0.30 and 0.18 &permil; for the custom 2013 and WVISS setup, respectively, after averaging times of 10⁴ s (2.78 h). Using response time tests and stability tests, we show that the custom setups are more responsive (shorter response time), whereas the University of Copenhagen (UC) setup is more stable. More broadly, comparisons of different setups address the challenge of integrating vaporizer/spectrometer isotope measurement systems into a CFA campaign with many other analytical instruments

Calculating uncertainty for the RICE ice core continuous flow analysis water isotope record

We describe a systematic approach to the calibration and uncertainty estimation of a high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) water isotope (δ2H, δ18O) record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) Antarctic ice core. Our method establishes robust uncertainty estimates for CFA δ2H and δ18O measurements, comparable to those reported for discrete sample δ2H and δ18O analysis. Data were calibrated using a time-weighted two-point linear calibration with two standards measured both before and after continuously melting 3 or 4&thinsp;m of ice core. The error at each data point was calculated as the quadrature sum of three factors: Allan variance error, scatter over our averaging interval (error of the variance) and calibration error (error of the mean). Final mean total uncertainty for the entire record is δ2H = 0.74 ‰ and δ18O = 0.21 ‰. Uncertainties vary through the data set and were exacerbated by a range of factors, which typically could not be isolated due to the requirements of the multi-instrument CFA campaign. These factors likely occurred in combination and included ice quality, ice breaks, upstream equipment failure, contamination with drill fluid and leaks or valve degradation. We demonstrate that our methodology for documenting uncertainty was effective across periods of uneven system performance and delivered a significant achievement in the precision of high-resolution CFA water isotope measurements.</p

Potential for Southern Hemisphere climate surprises

Climate model results suggest that future climate change in Antarctica will be accompanied by continued strengthening and poleward contraction of the Southern Ocean westerly wind belt. Paleoclimate records suggest past changes in the westerly winds can be abrupt and that healing of the Antarctic ozone hole could lead to poleward contraction of the westerlies and increased meridional atmospheric transport of warm air regionally into Antarctica. An abrupt shift to more meridional circulation could lead to notable changes in moisture availability for extra-Antarctic regions, increased Antarctic ice sheet disintegration and more rapid sea-level rise

Volcanic glass from the 1.8 ka Taupō eruption (New Zealand) detected in Antarctic ice at ~ 230 CE.

Chemical anomalies in polar ice core records are frequently linked to volcanism; however, without the presence of (crypto)tephra particles, links to specific eruptions remain speculative. Correlating tephras yields estimates of eruption timing and potential source volcano, offers refinement of ice core chronologies, and provides insights into volcanic impacts. Here, we report on sparse rhyolitic glass shards detected in the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core (West Antarctica), attributed to the 1.8 ka Taupō eruption (New Zealand)-one of the largest and most energetic Holocene eruptions globally. Six shards of a distinctive geochemical composition, identical within analytical uncertainties to proximal Taupō glass, are accompanied by a single shard indistinguishable from glass of the ~25.5 ka Ōruanui supereruption, also from Taupō volcano. This double fingerprint uniquely identifies the source volcano and helps link the shards to the climactic phase of the Taupō eruption. The englacial Taupō-derived glass shards coincide with a particle spike and conductivity anomaly at 278.84 m core depth, along with trachytic glass from a local Antarctic eruption of Mt. Melbourne. The assessed age of the sampled ice is 230 ± 19 CE (95% confidence), confirming that the published radiocarbon wiggle-match date of 232 ± 10 CE (2 SD) for the Taupō eruption is robust

Back to the future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.The Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21) Scientific Research Programme of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research are thanked for supporting the international scientific workshop at which the writing of this manuscript was initiated. This is a contribution to the PAGES 2k Network (through the CLIVASH 2k project). NJA acknowledges support by the Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). SJP was supported under the Australian Research Council’s Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). JMJ acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust through a Research Fellowship (RF-2018-183). FC acknowledges support from the PNRA national Italian projects PNRA16_00016, “WHISPERS” and project PNRA_00002, “ANTIPODE”. TJB, LS, and ERT were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. TJB additionally acknowledges support for this work as a contribution to the NERC grant NE/N01829X/1. IW thanks FAPESP 2015/50686-1, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) Finance Code 001 and CNPq 300970/2018-8, CNPq INCT Criosfera 704222/200

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (delta O-18) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the delta O-18-temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data-model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate

Regional Antarctic snow accumulation over the past 1000 years

Here we present Antarctic snow accumulation variability at the regional scale over the past 1000 years. A total of 79 ice core snow accumulation records were gathered and assigned to seven geographical regions, separating the high-accumulation coastal zones below 2000 m of elevation from the dry central Antarctic Plateau. The regional composites of annual snow accumulation were evaluated against modelled surface mass balance (SMB) from RACMO2.3p2 and precipitation from ERA-Interim reanalysis. With the exception of the Weddell Sea coast, the low-elevation composites capture the regional precipitation and SMB variability as defined by the models. The central Antarctic sites lack coherency and either do not represent regional precipitation or indicate the model inability to capture relevant precipitation processes in the cold, dry central plateau. Our results show that SMB for the total Antarctic Ice Sheet (including ice shelves) has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt decadeg 1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of â\u88¼ 0.02 mm decadeg 1 since 1800 and â\u88¼ 0.04 mm decadeg 1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula (â\u88¼ 75 %) where the annual average SMB during the most recent decade (2001-2010) is 123 ± 44 Gt yrg 1 higher than the annual average during the first decade of the 19th century. Only four ice core records cover the full 1000 years, and they suggest a decrease in snow accumulation during this period. However, our study emphasizes the importance of low-elevation coastal zones, which have been under-represented in previous investigations of temporal snow accumulation

A 2700-year annual timescale and accumulation history for an ice core from Roosevelt Island, West Antarctica

ice core, Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. The core adds information on past accumulation changes in an otherwise poorly constrained sector of Antarctica. The timescale was constructed by identifying annual cycles in high-resolution impurity records, and it constitutes the top part of the Roosevelt Island Ice Core Chronology 2017 (RICE17). Validation by volcanic and methane matching to the WD2014 chronology from the WAIS Divide ice core shows that the two timescales are in excellent agreement. In a companion paper, gas matching to WAIS Divide is used to extend the timescale for the deeper part of the core in which annual layers cannot be identified. Based on the annually resolved timescale, we produced a record of past snow accumulation at Roosevelt Island. The accumulation history shows that Roosevelt Island experienced slightly increasing accumulation rates between 700 BCE and 1300 CE, with an average accumulation of 0.25±0.02 m water equivalent (w.e.) per year. Since 1300 CE, trends in the accumulation rate have been consistently negative, with an acceleration in the rate of decline after the mid-17th century. The current accumulation rate at Roosevelt Island is 0.210±0.002 m w.e. yr−1 (average since 1965 CE, ±2σ), and it is rapidly declining with a trend corresponding to 0.8 mm yr−2. The decline observed since the mid-1960s is 8 times faster than the long-term decreasing trend taking place over the previous centuries, with decadal mean accumulation rates consistently being below average. Previous research has shown a strong link between Roosevelt Island accumulation rates and the location and intensity of the Amundsen Sea Low, which has a significant impact on regional sea-ice extent. The decrease in accumulation rates at Roosevelt Island may therefore be explained in terms of a recent strengthening of the ASL and the expansion of sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea. The start of the rapid decrease in RICE accumulation rates observed in 1965 CE may thus mark the onset of significant increases in regional sea-ice extent